![]() (You'll end up with tons of extra Azure Pigment.) So let's focus on what it takes to get one Icy Pigment. When milling a stack of 5 Northrend herbs, you will receive: On average, you will need:ĥ-6 stacks if milling Lichbloom, Icethorn, or Adder's Tongueġ0-11 stacks if milling Goldclover, Tiger Lily, Deadnettle or Talandra's Rose (I'm ignoring the Resilient Parchment x1 and Eternal Life x3.) The larger the sample size the more accurate the standard deviation is (Variance from the average odds).Ĭomment by DyausAs an Herbalist I was wondering, how many herbs must be milled to make a Darkmoon Card of the North? There are several variables. In statistics we refer to this as sample size. When you are looking at results with odds like 1/32 you need tens of thousands of crafts before the odds will become remotely accurate. Now if you were to draw two different cards including order lets say an Ace of Nobles then an Ace of Undeath the odds of that combination are 1/1024 since you are once again looking at sequence but if you are simply looking at the end results of having an Ace of Nobles and an Ace of Undeath then your odds rise to 1/512 since there are 2 possible outcomes out of 1024 (Nobles first then Undeath and Undeath first then Nobles).Īs for random appearing random you cannot make a judgment like that. Odds become very different when you are looking at the specific sequence drawn vs the odds of a certain number of draws yielding certain cards at the end. In that case you end up with a 1/1024 combination since you have the Ace of Nobles (1/32) your first time and any other card (1/32) your next time. Once you include history you are looking at the sequence in addition to the total cards you end up with. If you draw that Ace of Nobles the first time (already drawn) then you have a 1/32 chance of getting it again on your next draw and a 1/32 chance of getting each other card on the next draw. You are also significantly more like to get duplicates in general as you do more draws. It gets tremendously more difficult to get duplicates as you approach the sample size. Notice your odds are 96 times better off drawing 2 of the same than 3 of the same. (I think I did that right, I'm kinda tired). In 2 draws you have a 1/1024 chance of drawing two of the same card, since the only possible combination out of the 1024 combinations is if you draw it the first time and the second time.į you draw 3 cards and 2 are the same you have a 96/32768(1 in about 341.3) chance of getting a match since you can match them on 1 and 2 with 32 other cards for 3, 1 and 3 with 32 other cards for 2, and 2 and 3 with 32 other cards for 1. You have a 1/32 chance of drawing any given card, lets say an Ace of Nobles. If you do another draw, its 1/32th chance to get that same card, so 1/32^10 chance to get this same card 10 times in a row if you pull 10 cards.įor those interested, if there would be a limited amount of cards in game (which not the case) this math would change.Īlso, if Asharak would consider yesterday's card crafting as well, the math would change.Ĭomment by lightmglOdds are always a very tricky topic. If you do another draw, its 1/32th chance to get that same card, so 1/32^3 chance to get this same card 3 times in a row if you pull 3 cards. If you do another draw, its 1/32th chance to get that same card, so 1/32^2 chance to get this same card 2 times in a row if you pull 2 cards. So in his mind (bless him, he has no concept of future or past) it's always 1/32th chance to get a certain card. If you do 1 draw, its 1/32th chance to get a card. The difference between the 2 above views, is that Acquilla is talking about observing 1 draw at the time and Asharak is talking about observing 10 draws. Comment by MilkerThe everreturning Math discussion about random.
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